Global PC Market Rebounds with Strong Commercial Refresh Cycle
New data from Gartner reveals the global PC market has experienced a significant resurgence, with worldwide shipments reaching 69 million units in the third quarter – representing an 8.2% year-over-year increase. This growth comes as welcome news for an industry that has faced numerous challenges in recent years, with the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline serving as the primary catalyst for renewed enterprise investment.
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The shipment figures, which represent devices sold to resellers and distributors rather than direct consumer sales, highlight a bifurcated market landscape. While commercial refresh cycles are driving substantial growth in most regions, North America experienced more modest 1.6% growth due to earlier purchasing patterns influenced by tariff concerns. According to recent market analysis, this regional variation underscores how geopolitical factors continue to shape technology adoption patterns worldwide.
Commercial Demand Outpaces Consumer Caution
Rishi Padhi, research principal at Gartner, emphasized the divergent trends between commercial and consumer segments. “Consumer demand remained subdued at the lower price points, impacted by persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds,” Padhi noted. “Consumers continue to exhibit cautious spending behavior – delaying PC purchases and seeking promotional offers.”
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This commercial-focused growth cycle reflects the ongoing impact of Windows 11’s hardware requirements, which have forced many organizations to upgrade older systems that cannot support the new operating system. The commercial refresh cycle has proven particularly strong in regions beyond North America, where businesses are proactively addressing the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline.
Vendor Landscape Shows Stability with Subtle Shifts
The competitive landscape among PC manufacturers remained largely stable, with the top five vendors maintaining their positions from the previous year while all experiencing unit sales growth. Lenovo strengthened its market leadership position, capturing 27.8% of global shipments compared to 25.8% a year earlier.
HP maintained its second-place position with 21.5% market share, while Dell experienced a slight contraction to 14.5% from 15.4% in the same quarter last year. Apple saw minimal movement despite hopes that the Windows transition might drive users to alternative platforms, with its market share inching up from 8.7% to 8.9%. This stability occurs amid broader global brands facing mounting pressure in China as domestic competitors gain traction.
AI PCs Gain Traction Despite Uncertain Value Proposition
The emerging category of AI PCs represents another significant trend, with Gartner forecasting these devices will account for 31% of shipments in 2025, up substantially from 15% in 2024. This growth is primarily industry-driven rather than consumer-led, as manufacturers increasingly integrate neural processing units (NPUs) into their systems.
As The Register previously observed, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to purchase PCs without AI accelerators, despite the absence of killer applications that fully leverage this technology. This trend toward integrated AI capabilities reflects broader technology industry developments where businesses are preparing for AI-driven workflows even before clear use cases emerge.
Market Challenges and Future Outlook
While the Windows 11 refresh cycle has provided a welcome boost to the PC industry, questions remain about sustainable growth beyond this temporary stimulus. The single-digit growth, though a marked improvement over recent performance, falls short of the double-digit increases some industry observers had anticipated.
Vendors are increasingly looking to AI applications as the next growth driver, though customer skepticism about the practical benefits of current AI PC implementations remains a significant hurdle. This technological transition occurs alongside other related innovations in the technology sector that are reshaping how consumers interact with digital devices.
The PC market’s current resurgence, while encouraging, highlights the industry’s ongoing dependence on operating system upgrade cycles for significant growth. As businesses complete their Windows 11 transitions, manufacturers will need to demonstrate clearer value propositions for emerging technologies like AI PCs to maintain momentum. The coming quarters will reveal whether current market trends and technological developments can sustain this recovery or if the industry will face another period of stagnation once the Windows refresh cycle concludes.
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