According to Futurism, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has declared a “code red” as the company’s lead narrows. The firm is committed to spending well over $1 trillion in the coming years while losing massive sums quarterly, with revenues lagging far behind as most ChatGPT users refuse to pay. Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid estimates losses could hit $140 billion between 2024 and 2029. Meanwhile, Google is quickly catching up to ChatGPT’s claimed 800 million weekly users, with its Gemini AI app growing 30% between July and November compared to ChatGPT’s mere 5% growth. Recent data also shows ChatGPT’s user growth stalling in Europe, and Google’s new Gemini 3 model has outperformed OpenAI’s top models in benchmarks.
The Unprecedented Cash Inferno
Here’s the thing: the numbers are almost incomprehensible. We’re talking about a startup on track to lose $140 billion in five years. That’s not a typo. To even cover the interest on its borrowing, OpenAI needs revenue to explode overnight. But the growth story is falling apart. A 5% user bump in four months? For a product that was supposedly defining a generation, that’s a massive red flag. It feels like the classic tech story: you win the hype cycle, but you completely lose the monetization plot. Analyst Ross Hendricks’ comparison to MySpace isn’t just a spicy soundbite—it’s a real warning. Being first doesn’t mean you get to win.
Google Isn’t Just Catching Up
And now the competition is here, and it’s brutal. Google isn’t some plucky startup. It’s a profit machine making $30 billion a quarter. It can afford to play the long game. So when Geoffrey Hinton, the so-called “Godfather of AI,” says Google is beginning to overtake OpenAI, you have to listen. Google has the data, the infrastructure, and an army of researchers. Its Gemini 3 launch wasn’t just an update; it was a statement. They matched and then exceeded OpenAI’s technical benchmarks. While OpenAI’s Sora video tool got bogged down in controversy, Google kept pushing. Now, the user metrics are reflecting that momentum shift. This isn’t a two-horse race anymore, either. Open-source models from China, like DeepSeek’s energy-efficient R1, are adding immense pressure from another flank. OpenAI is getting squeezed from all sides.
What Happens When the Bubble Pops?
So what’s the endgame? The fundamental question the article raises is terrifying for investors: if the AI bubble deflates, does OpenAI have a business? Right now, it’s a bet on a future revolutionary product that doesn’t exist yet, funded by burning mountains of cash. That’s a faith-based economy. The company needs another ChatGPT-level breakthrough, and fast. But breakthroughs are unpredictable. Meanwhile, Google can seamlessly integrate AI into its existing, profitable empire—Search, Workspace, Android. OpenAI has to build an empire from scratch while under siege. I think we’re seeing the transition from the “wow” phase to the “show me the money” phase. And OpenAI, for all its brilliance, might have celebrated the wow phase a little too long. The bill is coming due, and it’s a trillion-dollar tab.
