According to CNBC, Asia-focused private equity managers are turning bullish on China again after years of retreat, with firms completing just 93 deals through September compared to 279 in all of 2024. At Wednesday’s Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, EQT Asia chairman Jean Eric Salata called China’s automated manufacturing “mind-blowing” while Hillhouse Investment founder Zhang Lei predicted China will lead in AI application layers. The optimism comes despite fundraising plunging to $3.6 billion through June from $23.6 billion a year earlier, with new PE funds dropping from 144 in 2021 to just 14 this year. Primavera Capital’s Fred Hu pointed to China’s 3.7 terawatt electricity capacity being triple America’s as key for AI development.
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The surprising bullish turn
Here’s what’s fascinating about this shift. We’re talking about an industry that’s been running scared from China for years. Deal volumes have absolutely cratered – we’re looking at the weakest year in over a decade. Fundraising has basically fallen off a cliff. So why the sudden optimism from these heavyweight investors?
It seems they’re betting that China’s technological self-sufficiency drive is finally hitting its stride. The automation at companies like Xiaomi’s EV plants apparently blew these investors away. But let’s be real – this isn’t just about robots in factories. They’re seeing something bigger happening.
China’s AI commercialization edge
Zhang Lei made a compelling point about China’s ability to commercialize AI quickly. Think about it – China has this massive consumer base that’s already conditioned to adopt new tech at lightning speed. Lower costs, open-source models, and rapid product iterations create an environment where AI applications can scale like nowhere else.
Fred Hu’s electricity argument is particularly interesting though. When he says China’s power generation capacity is three times larger than America’s, that’s not just a random statistic. AI consumes insane amounts of power, and having that infrastructure already in place gives China a real physical advantage beyond just talent and capital.
The geopolitical rebalancing
Now here’s where it gets really strategic. Salata mentioned that global investors are “looking at diversification” after being heavily weighted toward dollar assets. Basically, after years of pulling money out of China, some investors are realizing they might have overcorrected.
Western money has been fleeing China amid all the tensions, but that’s created an opportunity for Asian-focused funds to step in. The thinking seems to be: if everyone else is running scared, maybe there are some bargains to be had in sectors that align with Beijing’s five-year plan priorities.
But let’s not get carried away. The numbers still look pretty grim – we’re talking about deal volumes down 80% from 2022 levels. This isn’t a flood of money returning, more like a trickle of smart money betting against the prevailing narrative.
The reality check
So is this the beginning of a major turnaround or just wishful thinking from fund managers who need to justify their China exposure? The truth is probably somewhere in between.
The automation and AI arguments are compelling, but China still faces massive challenges – regulatory uncertainty, property sector troubles, and let’s be honest, ongoing tensions with the US that aren’t going away. These investors are making a contrarian bet that China’s tech push will overcome those headwinds.
Basically, they’re betting that China’s ability to rapidly adopt and scale technology will create opportunities that outweigh the geopolitical risks. It’s a high-stakes gamble, but one that could pay off handsomely if they’re right about China leading the next phase of AI commercialization.
