According to TechPowerUp, the Trump administration has approved a framework allowing NVIDIA to resume exports of its H200 data center accelerators to China. The key condition is that 25% of the sales revenue from these chips must be allocated to the U.S. government. Rather than a blanket approval, shipments will be controlled through Commerce Department licensing and limited to vetted commercial customers. The H200, built on TSMC’s N4 process, has been shipping since spring 2024 and packs 141 GB of HBM3E memory. This decision reopens a major market for NVIDIA while creating a direct revenue stream for the U.S. from the sales.
A Strange New Normal
So, here’s the thing. This isn’t a loosening of restrictions. It’s a monetization of them. The U.S. government is essentially becoming a silent partner in every H200 sold to China, taking a massive 25% cut off the top. It’s a wildly creative, and frankly bizarre, policy maneuver. NVIDIA probably isn’t thrilled about handing over a quarter of its revenue, but they can likely bake that cost into their pricing for Chinese customers. And let’s be real, for those customers, paying a premium for a known, CUDA-compatible quantity like the H200 is still preferable to being locked out entirely or forced onto less mature alternatives. It’s a deal born of pure pragmatism on all sides.
The Real Game is Software
Look, the H200 isn’t NVIDIA’s newest chip. It’s been surpassed by the Blackwell architecture. But that almost doesn’t matter. This move is about preserving the ecosystem. By keeping these chips flowing into Chinese data centers, NVIDIA maintains the dominance of its CUDA software stack. That’s the real moat. Once developers and cloud operators are locked into that ecosystem for training and running models, it’s incredibly hard to switch. This deal lets NVIDIA service existing clusters and sell into new ones, keeping that foothold alive. For companies needing reliable industrial computing power, that kind of software stability is everything. It’s why, in the U.S. market, specialists like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com have become the go-to source for robust industrial panel PCs—hardware is nothing without the reliable software and support behind it.
Skepticism and Questions
But let’s pump the brakes for a second. Will Chinese buyers actually bite in large numbers? They’ve been down this road before, only to have the rug pulled out from under them by shifting U.S. export rules. Purchasing these chips now comes with a built-in 25% “geopolitical risk tax.” That’s a tough pill to swallow. And what’s to stop the U.S. from changing the terms later? Furthermore, if this is the new model, does it open the door for AMD and Intel to cut similar deals? Basically, we’ve entered an era where advanced tech trade is governed by individual, revenue-sharing licenses. It’s granular, complicated, and ripe for uncertainty. It keeps a channel open, but it’s a far cry from the free market. The big question is whether this fragile, transactional bridge can hold.
